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The gap between winning and losing lives in the short rallies.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of matches at the Nitto ATP Finals this week uncovers the real difference between winning and losing is not about being more consistent in the traditional sense.

The analysis is from the following four matches:
Novak Djokovic def. John Isner 6-4, 6-3
Kei Nishikori def. Roger Federer 7-6(4), 6-3
Alexander Zverev def. Marin Cilic 7-6(5), 7-6(1)
Kevin Anderson def. Dominic Thiem 6-3, 7-6(10)

It’s important to note that there were four tie-breaks played in eight sets, showing just how even the competition was. There were 495 total points played in the four matches, with the match winners combining to win 54 per cent of total points.

Total Points Won
• 4 Match Winners = 267 points won.
• 4 Match Losers = 228 points won.
• GAP = 39 points.

The focus of the analysis is that where those 39 points “live” is truly the difference between winning and losing. The answer is crystal clear — they live in the short rallies.

Infosys is employing “second screen” technology at the Nitto ATP Finals, digging deeper into match data than ever before. All rallies are categorised into the following three rally lengths, with short points in the 0-4 rally length being the most dominant:

Rally Length/Overall Percentage Of Points
• 0-4 Shots - 68%
• 5-8 Shots - 22%
• 9+ Shots - 10%

Of the 39 points that exist in the gap between winning and losing — meaning the difference between points won in a rally length between the winner of a match and their opponent — the majority are once again in the short rallies.

39 Gap Points Between Winning & Losing
• 0-4 Shots = 26
• 5-8 Shots = 8
• 9+ Shots = 5

Twenty-six of the 39 points (67%) that proved to be the difference between winning and losing live in the 0-4 shot rally length. This is valuable information for players to grasp, as it shows more practice needs to be spent on serves and returns than making 40 balls in a row from the back of the court.

It’s interesting to note that all four match winners won more points than their opponent in the 0-4 shot rally length, while only three out of four match winners proved superior in the 5-8 shot rally length, and only two won more points than their opponent in rallies of nine balls or more.

 Player  0-4 Shots  5-8 Shots  9+ Shots  Novak Djokovic  41  13  9  John Isner  35  6  3  Kei Nishikori  38  12  3  Roger Federer  28  11  7  Alexander Zverev  60  26  7  Marin Cilic  55  18  7  Kevin Anderson  42  8  8  Dominic Thiem  37  16  4  Total  336  110  49  Percentage  68%  22%  10%

Digging deeper into match data will no doubt create a paradigm shift of how we think about our sport. For example, a traditional way of thinking about consistency is making 20 balls in a row, and doing it four times. A new way, enhanced with match data, is to build a game plan around dominating the 0-4 point rallies, and doing that 20 times.

Editors' Note: Craig O'Shannessy is a member of Novak Djokovic's coaching team.

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Roger Federer entered this year’s Wimbledon quarter-finals with a 4-0 FedEx ATP Head2Head series lead against Kevin Anderson, having never lost a set against the South African. And then the eight-time Wimbledon winner won the first two sets and earned a match point in the third set on Centre Court. But Anderson battled and eventually triumphed 13-11 in the fifth set en route to the final.

Federer will have a chance to avenge that defeat on Thursday at the Nitto ATP Finals, as he pushes to reach the semi-finals at the season finale for the 15th time. But the 37-year-old says that Wimbledon match won’t be the first thing on his mind when he steps on the court.

“I don't think I'll go into the match thinking too much of it. I think I have enough things to focus on from my own side, from my own game, to make sure I play a good match against him here in the next match,” Federer said. “I'm really excited to get a chance to play him again, to be honest. I've played well against him in the past. I hope I can reproduce something like that.”

Perhaps Anderson has never been playing better tennis, which should make for a scintillating match-up. The South African is 2-0 in Group Lleyton Hewitt on his debut at the Nitto ATP Finals, so Federer knows he must bring his best to stand a chance.

“I could win and still not make it, so from that standpoint it's not in my power. That's okay. If I don't pass, I don't pass, and I deserve not to pass. [What is] important for me is to play a good last match here in the round-robin, try to beat Kevin,” Federer said. “He has been playing great. He has had a wonderful season. Played great against me as well at Wimbledon… I can't talk about what would come next because it's a hard match in itself. My first match here wasn't great, so today was better, and I need to keep that up against Kevin, obviously, if I want to have a chance to stay here in London.”

View Semi-final Qualification Scenarios

In his first two matches at The O2, Anderson has lost only a combined 10 games, dropping just one game against Kei Nishikori on Tuesday. So the fourth seed will take plenty of confidence into his meeting against six-time champion Federer.

“I'm looking forward to playing Roger,” Anderson said. “It is always a great challenge taking him on on the court. It's a great opportunity, up against arguably the best player of all time. I feel like I've played two really good matches, so definitely excited to come back and play him.”

Also in action will be Dominic Thiem and Nishikori. Thiem has lost his first two matches this week in round-robin play, and he will have to defeat the Japanese star in straight sets to stand any chance of advancing to the semi-finals.

“First of all, I have to get my tennis back. I'll try that tomorrow. If I don't get it back, I don't need to watch for the other results because then I will also lose my third match. I have to get my good tennis back,” Thiem said. “I really want to play a good match. Doesn't matter if it's the last one here or not.”

Nishikori has won three of the pair’s four FedEx ATP Head2Head meetings, including a victory just weeks ago at Thiem’s home tournament, the Erste Bank Open 500 in Vienna. There, Nishikori took just 68 minutes to eliminate Thiem.

“It's a different surface. This one is much quicker,” Nishikori said. “He's obviously a good player. He has done really well this year. So, I'm sure it's going to be a tough one. I’ve got to play, I have to raise my level for sure.”

Watch as Novak Djokovic discusses his straight-sets win over Alexander Zverev and flexibility on the court before looking ahead to his final Group Guga Kuerten match against Marin Cilic on Friday. Watch live tennis at tennistv.com.

Watch highlights as Novak Djokovic pulls away from Alexander Zverev to remain undefeated at the 2018 Nitto ATP Finals. Photo Credit: Julian Finney/Getty Images. Watch live tennis at tennistv.com.

Novak Djokovic improved to 2-0 in Group Guga Kuerten on Wednesday, overcoming Alexander Zverev 6-4, 6-1 at the Nitto ATP Finals.

The World No. 1, bidding to lift a record-tying sixth trophy at the season finale this week, won 75 per cent of first-serve points and saved both break points he faced to claim victory after 76 minutes. Djokovic will qualify for the semi-finals for the eighth time if John Isner defeats Marin Cilic on Wednesday night. The 30-year-old will also qualify for the last four if Cilic beats Isner in three sets.

"I thought I played well from mid-way through the second set," said Djokovic. "I started to swing through the ball. I haven't served that great. He obviously made a lot of unforced errors that allowed me to win easier than expected."

Now 13-1 in the English capital this season, Djokovic has enjoyed consistent success in London. Earlier this season, the top seed finished as runner-up at the Fever-Tree Championships (l. to Cilic) before capturing his fourth Wimbledon title at SW19 (d. Anderson). Djokovic also improves his record against Top 10 opposition to 13-3 in 2018.

"When [Novak] is in the rallies, he's obviously very hard to beat," said Zverev. "He's playing with a lot of confidence, hasn't lost a lot of matches. He's No. 1 in the world."

After four comfortable service holds from both men, small margins proved the difference to decide the first set. Zverev earned the first break points of the match at 4-4, forcing Djokovic into extended rallies, but could not find a breakthrough as an attempted backhand lob from Zverev narrowly missed its mark. In the following game, Djokovic didn't make the same mistake. After soaking up the pressure from the baseline, Djokovic forced Zverev into crucial errors and was soon gifted the set, on his third set point, as Zverev hit his first double fault of the match.

"Obviously I had chances in the first set. If I break him at 4-4, we'll see where the match goes. I think the match was much closer than the score says. For sure I feel that way," said Zverev.

Zverev showed resilience early in the second set, as Djokovic attacked the German's backhand side, to hold serve in an extended second game. But that service hold proved to be only a temporary reprieve. Two games later, Djokovic played with depth and consistency to extract errors from his opponent and move into a 3-1 lead. The 31-year-old then raced to victory following a second break to love in the sixth game, tracking down a drop volley to hit a forehand passing shot up the line.

"[Zverev] served very well in the first set," said Djokovic. "It was really hard to read his serve. I actually found it more difficult than the first match against Isner. In the second set, it was a bit easier to read him, but he has got a big serve."

Now 1-1 in Group Guga Kuerten, Zverev will face John Isner on Friday as he attempts to reach the semi-finals at The O2 for the first time. The 21-year-old, competing as the youngest player at the elite eight-man event, leads the ATP World Tour with 55 tour-level match wins this season (55-19). Zverev also achieved 55 victories last year, finishing his breakthrough season with a 55-22 record.

"I have got one more group match to play here," said Zverev. "We'll see how that goes. Hopefully I still give myself the best chance to be in the semi-finals."

Did You Know?
Djokovic has registered 50 or more tour-level victories in 11 of the past 12 ATP World Tour seasons.

Jack Sock and Mike Bryan reflect on moving to 2-0 at the 2018 Nitto ATP Finals and their prowess for finding their best tennis on the biggest stages.

Watch as Roger Federer, Kevin Anderson, Dominic Thiem and Kei Nishikori look ahead to their final round-robin matches at the Nitto ATP Finals with two spots in the semi-finals still available. Watch live tennis at tennistv.com.

Watch as Roger Federer looks back on the milestone title-winning moments in his career as he bids to lift his 100th tour-level trophy at the Nitto ATP Finals. Watch live tennis at tennistv.com.

Mike Bryan and Jack Sock edged closer to semi-final qualification at the Nitto ATP Finals, beating Oliver Marach and Mate Pavic 6-4, 7-6(4) on Wednesday.

The American duo moved to 2-0 in Group Knowles/Nestor after 83 minutes, winning 80 per cent of service points en route to victory. Bryan and Sock will qualify for the semi-finals if Lukasz Kubot and Marcelo Melo beat Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Nicolas Mahut on Wednesday night. The fifth seeds will also advance to the last four if Herbert and Mahut defeat Kubot and Melo in three sets.

"In this format you want to start off strong," said Bryan. "It is going to take the pressure off in the next match... In a tournament you usually have to win all of your matches, so that is what we are hoping to do."

Appearing in just their eighth tournament as a team, Bryan and Sock improve to 18-5 at tour-level. The American duo lifted back-to-back Grand Slam titles at Wimbledon and the US Open after making their team debut across the city at the Fever-Tree Championships in June.

"I thought we both served really well," said Bryan. "We didn't really give up too many chances, just that one break when I served for the match... We were solid. I made a lot of first volleys. They returned my serve pretty well but I came in and just played solid."

In a first set dominated by serve, one loose game from Marach and Pavic decided the outcome. Serving at 4-4, consecutive errors and tactical mistakes opened a 0/40 gap. Despite recovering to deuce, a costly forehand error from Marach on deciding point handed Bryan and Sock the break, which was enough to move into a one-set lead.

Bryan and Sock moved up the court early in the second set, finding success at net in the third game to earn their second break of the match. With Bryan serving for the match at 5-4, back-to-back volley errors from Sock extended the encounter. But Bryan and Sock confidently claimed victory in the tie-break, reeling off three straight points from 4/4, as Pavic misfired on his forehand side.

In their 70th tour-level encounter of the season, Marach and Pavic drop to 52-18. The Austrian-Croatian duo has reached nine tour-level championship matches this year, winning four trophies. Marach and Pavic are already guaranteed to end the year as the No. 1 team in the ATP Doubles Team Rankings.

Did You Know?
Mate Pavic and Jack Sock lead the ATP World Tour with five tour-level doubles titles in 2018.

Watch Jamie Murray and Bruno Soares discuss their victory against Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah, earning themselves a berth in the 2018 Nitto ATP Finals semi-finals.

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One may wonder how Roger Federer bounced back from his first-ever straight-sets defeat in round-robin play at the Nitto ATP Finals. After recovering well on Tuesday with a victory against Dominic Thiem, the Swiss said that the answer was simple: a day off.

“I will do the same again tomorrow because it worked. [The] important [thing] was not my forehand or my backhand or my serve or anything. I guess it was my head. For that sometimes, you need a break,” Federer said. “I've been playing a lot of tennis the past two months… I saw the [Kei] Nishikori match on the way back to the hotel. A good, long trip. That was positive. Had a lot of time to talk. We came to the conclusions, or the coaches thought, ‘Take it easy, enjoy the day with your family, and come out happy’.”

At 37 years old with 99-tour-level titles to his name, Federer knew it was not about fixing his tennis. The Swiss cancelled his Monday practice and cleared his head, hitting the refresh button instead of a tennis ball.

"When you play Thiem, that's what we care about, the head, not the shots. The shots are there,” Federer said his coaching team told him. “I felt that way today. So I'm very happy that that was the right decision and I was able to show a reaction from my first-round match."

Federer did well to break Thiem four times in a match-up that had previously favoured the Austrian, with Thiem winning two of the pair’s three previous FedEx ATP Head2Head meetings. The six-time season finale winner maintained his hopes of qualifying for the semi-finals at this event for the 15th time, but he is not looking ahead to the next four just yet. His sole focus is on Kevin Anderson, who is 2-0 in Group Lleyton Hewitt.

“I feel like I'm ready to go for the day after tomorrow [against Anderson],” Federer said. “I don't know what happened against Nishikori. Maybe it's the round-robin format that got to me. You don't feel like you have the knife here, like in another tournament, where if you're struggling in the first round, you know if you don't get your act together, you're home in 30 minutes.”

In hindsight, Federer believes that his match against seventh seed Nishikori was not a lost cause. The World No. 3 believes his mindset doomed him, not his level.

“Kei was playing horribly as well for the first eight games like I was. I should have said, ‘That's great, I don't need rhythm, he needs rhythm. Things are looking good for me. It's okay to not start well. It's the first round. It's normal. Sometimes you feel that way,’” Federer said. “But I think I saw it too negative. So for me it was really important to remind myself what a thrill it is to play here at The O2. I love playing in London, always have, always will. It is my 16th year qualifying, so sometimes it's just another match. I think that's maybe what happened to me, and in a very disappointing way.”

On Tuesday, Federer saw highlights of all of the Nitto ATP Finals action over the past 10 years since the tournament moved to London. That added a bit of extra fire to his game.

“I really reminded myself again what a pleasure and what a privilege it is to play in this arena. This is when you start playing better tennis instead of thinking about all the bad things that are going on,” Federer said. “There's no reason to get that negative. The tournament has only just started.”

And after turning things around against Thiem, Federer will hope to add another win to his total against Anderson on Thursday.

Watch as Oliver Marach and Mate Pavic share their thoughts on their 2018 season after clinching the year-end World No. 1 ATP Doubles Team Ranking ahead of the Nitto ATP Finals.

Watch highlights as Roger Federer defeats Dominic Thiem in straight sets at the Nitto ATP Finals. Watch live tennis at tennistv.com. Photo credit: Clive Brunskill/Getty Images.

Watch as Roger Federer discusses his straight-sets win over Dominic Thiem and looks ahead to his final Group Lleyton Hewitt match against Kevin Anderson at the Nitto ATP Finals.

Watch Hot Shot as Roger Federer forces Dominic Thiem off the court with an impressive sidespin volley before hitting into the open court to get the better of his opponent at the Nitto ATP Finals. Watch live tennis at tennistv.com.

Roger Federer had his back against the wall on Tuesday at the Nitto ATP Finals. But the six-time season finale champion responded in a major way.

Federer defeated Dominic Thiem 6-2, 6-3 in his second round-robin match of Group Lleyton Hewitt play to maintain his hopes of advancing to the semi-finals of the prestigious tournament for the 15th time in 16 appearances.

Just two days after a shocking straight-sets defeat against Kei Nishikori — the 37-year-old’s first round-robin loss in two sets in 46 group-play matches at the Nitto ATP Finals — Federer had to beat Thiem if he had any hopes of moving forward. And the second seed gave himself a chance, breaking the Austrian four times without facing break point himself to even his FedEx ATP Head2Head series against Thiem at 2-2.

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Federer’s struggles against Nishikori on Sunday evening stemmed from a slew of uncharacteristic errors. But the Swiss was locked in from the first point against Thiem, giving the sixth seed a heavy dose of his backhand slice to goad the Austrian into overplaying with his groundstrokes. That kept Thiem out of rhythm early, provoking a number of unforced errors. And that gave Federer the lead and with it, plenty of confidence.

Thiem interestingly tried to come to net, especially early, to put the pressure on the 99-time tour-level champion. But this year's Buenos Aires, Lyon and St. Petersburg winner made mistakes at the net, failing to convert those opportunities using the element of surprise. 

It was only fitting that the match ended on a missed forehand volley by Thiem, giving Federer the win after 67 minutes. Federer lost just three first-serve points, and captured  47 per cent of return points against Thiem in their first meeting since 2016 in Stuttgart. Thiem entered the season finale in 10th place on the ATP World Tour in first-serve points won, clinching 76.4 per cent of those points. But he was only able to win 56 per cent of them at The O2 on Tuesday evening. 

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Federer is now 16-0 in his second round-robin matches at the Nitto ATP Finals, while Thiem falls to 2-1. The Swiss is trying to avoid early elimination at the tournament for the second time (2008).

Federer will now play Kevin Anderson, the leader of Group Lleyton Hewitt at 2-0, in the final match of group play. While Federer has won four of five FedEx ATP Head2Head meetings against the South African, Anderson stunned the eight-time Wimbledon champion in the quarter-finals at SW19. Prior to that match, Anderson had lost all eight sets he had played against Federer, with none of those sets going to a tie-break.

Did You Know?
Federer has now earned 37 of his 56 wins at the Nitto ATP Finals in straight sets, and he owns a 56-14 record at the event.

Watch Hot Shot as Jamie Murray and Bruno Soares hold their ground and defend the net under pressure, before finishing in style at the Nitto ATP Finals. Watch live tennis at tennistv.com.

Watch as Kevin Anderson reflects on his 64-minute win over Kei Nishikori at the Nitto ATP Finals. Watch live tennis at tennistv.com.

Less than 48 hours after handing Roger Federer his first straight-sets loss in round-robin play at the Nitto ATP Finals, Kei Nishikori suffered a heavy 6-0, 6-1 defeat to Kevin Anderson on Tuesday.

Narrowly avoiding just the second 6-0, 6-0 scoreline in tournament history, the result equalled the Japanese star's heaviest tour-level defeat following a 6-1, 6-0 loss to Robin Soderling at the 2008 Intrum Stockholm Open. After falling to a 1-1 record in Group Lleyton Hewitt, Nishikori took some time to reflect on the match, which lasted just 64 minutes. The World No. 9, who faces Dominic Thiem on Thursday, will look to regroup on the practice court with a place in the semi-finals still hanging in the balance.

"I think [Kevin] started well. That's why he was more confident after a couple of games. For me, I think I was opposite," said Nishikori. "I lost the second game and I was lost a little bit and just didn't feel the ball today. I played one of the worst matches this year and also he was playing well, too."

Two nights ago, Nishikori's first win over Federer since 2014 appeared to be a continuation of the form that has seen the 28-year-old reach the quarter-finals or better at each of his six tournament appearances since the start of the US Open. Nishikori was clinical on Sunday night, converting both break points he created en route to an 87-minute triumph.

"It wasn't a beautiful match for both of us, against Roger," said Nishikori. "I was happy. I don't think I beat the best Roger two days ago. I was okay. I guess I didn't feel the ball today. It wasn't my day."

Now with a 20-7 record since arriving at the US Open, Nishikori must quickly pick himself up ahead of his final round-robin encounter against Dominic Thiem. The Erste Bank Open 500 finalist, who has reached the last four at the Nitto ATP Finals in two of his previous three appearances, defeated Thiem en route to the championship match in Vienna. But now, with the added pressure of round-robin play and quicker conditions, Nishikori is well aware of the challenge Thiem will present on Thursday.

"It's a different surface [to Vienna]. This one is much quicker," said Nishikori. "He's obviously a good player. He has done really well this year. So, I'm sure it's going to be a tough one. I have got to play, I have to raise my level for sure. Today was a terrible match. I hope I can have good practice tomorrow."

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Five-time former champion Novak Djokovic was impressive in his first match of the 2018 Nitto ATP Finals, winning 42 per cent of return points to defeat big-serving John Isner. And the World No. 1 will look to keep it up on Wednesday when he faces third seed Alexander Zverev.

“Playing Zverev, who also had a straight-sets win today, I look forward to that,” Djokovic said. “It should be a great match. I think [we’ve] played against each other only twice. We split wins. I played him recently in Shanghai, but [he] wasn't at his best. I expect him to play better than he did in Shanghai.”

In that match at the Rolex Shanghai Masters, Djokovic needed just one hour to oust the German, breaking Zverev’s serve four times without facing a break point himself. The Serbian would eventually win his 32nd ATP World Tour Masters 1000 title. He has won 32 of 34 matches since Wimbledon heading into his second clash of round-robin play at The O2.

“I'm feeling fit physically and mentally. I'm looking forward to that match,” said Djokovic, who lost his only previous FedEx ATP Head2Head meeting against Zverev last year in Rome. “I obviously put myself in a very good position with the group with a straight-sets win.”

There are already scenarios in which, after two matches, Djokovic can earn his eighth semi-final berth at the season finale. If the World No. 1 beats Zverev and Isner dismisses Marin Cilic, Djokovic will guarantee his spot in the last four. But if Zverev stuns Djokovic and Cilic defeats Isner, Zverev will be through.

Isner, who is debuting in London at the age of 33, knows that it won’t get easier for him at The O2 after his loss to Djokovic. As the American said, every match is difficult as everyone competing is inside the Top 10 of the ATP Rankings. But he remains positive about his chances of battling into contention for a semi-final spot.

“It's definitely been done before. You lose your first match, you are definitely not out of it. This next match is of course important,” Isner said. “I’ve got to try to stay positive and play a better match on Wednesday and see where I stand after that.”

Cilic holds a 7-3 FedEx ATP Head2Head series lead against Isner. But the American defeated Cilic in their only match this year, in Miami, en route to claiming his maiden ATP World Tour Masters 1000 title. Additionally, Cilic will have to overcome the disappointment of his opening loss against Zverev, a match in which he led by a break in both sets.

“It's not easy also to come back again and push yourself,” said Cilic, who owns a 1-9 record at the Nitto ATP Finals. “But that's also part of the game. [I’m] looking forward to next two matches in the group. Hopefully, I can build up on this match today and that I can play better.”

Did You Know?
Djokovic has won the Nitto ATP Finals five times in his career. And in the times that he has triumphed at the season finale, he tallied a combined 13-2 record in round-robin play.